At any moment there is a possibility that things can go wrong such that either the pilot or the aircraft could be harmed. Risk management is the process of sorting out these matters. There are two factors in this process, recognizing the risk, and then doing something about it. Once we can characterize the risk, then we can take steps to either lower or avoid it.
Recognition of risk is directly related to the situation and may either be external or internal to the pilot. By external, we mean that some external force may cause the harm. Opposite this is where the pilot somehow is creating the harm. An example of an external risk might be the approach of bad weather. Examples of internal risks could be a dehydrated pilot losing control of an aircraft, or more directly, a pilot doing a dangerous manoeuvre.
Examining the situation more closely, when we are in the ‘Red’, our activities are skewed towards control of the aircraft. This is generally where our greatest risk lies, as it has the most immediate consequences. In this zone, there is a delicate balance. We are receiving lots of stimuli, time is short, and irresistible forces may move us towards immovable objects. We are mainly concerned with hitting something, either in the air or on the ground. When we move into the ‘Yellow’ and the ‘Green’ our immediate risk lowers, and is related towards making decisions that will lead to increased risk. We can see then that when we are in the ‘Red’ we are directly at risk, as opposed to in the ‘Yellow’ and the ‘Green’ where we in more of an assessment mode. In the ‘Yellow’ and the ‘Green’ our risk rises proportionally to failures to recognize a change in the situation, and to poor planning decisions. In the ‘Red’ risk is already high, and time for a decision is limited. We must look to controlling the situation more directly, as we have less time to make up for our mistakes.
The first tactic in managing risk is avoidance or promoting those activities that will lower risk. Lowering internal risks can range from keeping in good physical and mental condition, to recognizing hazardous thought patterns. External risks are best dealt with by avoidance. Risk management is often the process of setting limitations to our actions, for pre-defined situations, well ahead of time. For instance, leaving off-field landing selection late can result in a poor choice. Committing to the process early can lower the risk of a poor selection. We are in essence deciding the general rules for our behaviour well in advance, and attaching enough importance to them such that we don’t break them, knowing that we will be under less stress and safer in doing so.
The second tactic involves lowering factors that limit proficiency in dealing with risk. We know and accept that the situation is risky, so we ‘clear the decks’ so that we can act if called upon. For example, knowing that the takeoff has more associated risks we should refrain from doing distracting tasks at that time. Example of a distraction might be adjusting your watch, or fiddling with the instruments while the takeoff and climb are in progress. If we eliminate such unnecessary activities it will allow us to act better should difficulties arise.
These are the two book ends in dealing with risk, avoidance, and performance. It is wiser to promote avoidance rather than rely on performance.